Walid Battal
This year, the global fertilizer market is witnessing several key trends influenced by geopolitical, social, climatic, and economic factors. The market is valued at $381.7 billion this year, with a forecast of 6% growth through 2030, when it could reach $541 billion.
Sub-Saharan Africa is largely dependent on imports, with fertilizer consumption that is very low compared to world standards (22 kg/ha compared to a global average of 146 kg/ha). Fertilizer prices have remained volatile, with a recent 17% increase for urea due to production disruptions in Egypt, accentuated by natural gas price increases in Europe. The price of ammonia, for example, rose from USD 650 to USD 800/Ton in 2023, marking an instability that is expected to persist in 2024.
These dynamics are reflected in the sector’s ongoing challenges in meeting the growing demand for agri-food while dealing with one-off geopolitical and climatic disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic or the war in Ukraine.