In 2019/2020, the world coffee market is expected to record a slight surplus of 1.95 million bags compared to a deficit of 474,000 bags previously forecast by the International Coffee Organization (ICO). This slight revision is attributable to the fall in out-of-home coffee consumption, linked to population containment measures and the closure of bars and restaurants. Despite the fall in domestic and festive consumption, overall consumption is expected to increase by 0.5% to 166 million bags, mainly as a result of positive signals from the household demand side. “The slump in out-of-home consumption coincided with an upturn in supermarket and internet sales in Europe, the US and Brazil and a high level of interest from roasters to build up stocks,” explains Dutch banking group Rabobank. According to the ICO, world coffee production is expected to fall slightly to 168 million bags in 2019/2020 and the 2020/2021 crop could be affected in the long term if the damage caused by the pandemic were to increase.
Source: Ecofin Agency