The global production of coffee is expected to drop very slightly (by 0.9%), in 2019/2020 to a total of 167.4 million bags, according to the International Coffee Organisation (ICO). This situation is above all due to an unfavourable year in the two-year growing cycle for Arabica in Brazil, the world’s leading supplier. This variety is expected to drop by 2.7% to 95.68 million bags, whereas the Robusta crop is forecast to progress by 1.5% to 71.72 million bags. In other news, the price of coffee no longer seems to obey the fundamental laws of the marketplace. Whereas the price should be boosted by lower production and higher consumption, which has been increasing by an annual average of 2.1% for the past 10 years, prices for Arabica and Robusta have fallen by 40% since 2017.
Source: Agence Ecofin