WILLAGRI
The black scenario that predicted a collapse in global cocoa demand in 2025, due to the high prices recorded last year, will not happen. At least, not yet… According to the latest quarterly figures published last week, global bean crushing volumes fell less than expected. In Asia, the volume processed by the plants fell by 3.4% to 213,898 tonnes, while in Europe, grinding amounted to 353,522 tonnes (-3.7%). In North America, the stock of crushed cocoa fell by 2.5% to 110,278 tonnes. Overall, market analysts expected a 5% decline in processing activity in each region between January and March.
According to the most optimistic, these data, although indicating a slight decrease in milling, show a certain resilience of the cocoa supply. In a context where forecasts regarding the impact of prices on demand for raw materials were lackluster at the beginning of the year, these statistics prove that global industry is resisting headwinds better than expected.
With the prospect of a better harvest in West Africa (compared to the 2023/2024 season) and exports going well in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, bean availability has improved on the market. According to market data, certified cocoa warehouses affiliated with the New York Stock Exchange that can provide additional supplies to market participants have reached their highest level of occupancy since last October.
However, some analysts prefer to play the cautious card. With the imposition of tariffs announced in early April by the US and China’s retaliatory measures, some fear a slowdown in the global economy that could affect the cocoa market. Especially since Uncle Sam’s country represents the world’s largest chocolate market in volume and the leading importer of processed bean-based products. In addition, several chocolate makers have already announced price increases for their product to cope with the rise in the price of the raw material. While this strategy has been successful for the Zurich-based group Lindt & Sprüngli, Barry Callebaut reported a 4.7% drop in sales volume over the first six months of its 2024/2025 financial year on April 10. This indicates that the market is still sensitive to price changes, leaving little room for further increases in the coming months, with the risk of affecting consumption a little more.
Source: Ecofin Agency